CIRP just published US sales data for the iPhone in Q1, including a breakdown of how each different iPhone 16 model is performing. There are winners and losers, and even the first iPhone 16e data. The surprise loser of the bunch? The iPhone 16 Pro.
CIRP shows base iPhone 16 is swaying potential 16 Pro customers
Michael Levin and Josh Lowitz write at CIRP:
The mix of the original four iPhone 16 models shifted. The iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max together accounted for 38% of iPhone sales in the quarter, down from the 45% share for the similarly positioned iPhone 15 Pro and Pro Max one year ago. The iPhone 16 Plus matched its iPhone 15 Plus predecessor’s share last year. The basic iPhone 16 gained significantly, with 20% of new US iPhone unit sales, compared to only 14% for the iPhone 15 in the same quarter last year.
Why did the 16 Pro models dip so much? Diving deeper into the data, things are pretty clear.
While the iPhone 16 Pro Max still performed nearly as well as its predecessor, the smaller iPhone 16 Pro saw a big dip.
- iPhone 15 Pro: 22% of sales in last year’s Q1
- iPhone 16 Pro: only 17% of sales this year
Looking at the full chart, it’s not too difficult to discern what happened.
Way more than last year, a lot of buyers opted for the cheaper base model this quarter.
iPhone 16 sales accounted for 20% market share, while last year the iPhone 15 managed only 14%.
Apple’s efforts to make its base model more compelling clearly worked.
Top comment by Blurft
I'm not sure it's really a surprise. The iPhone 16 generation is the closest the "standard" models have been to the "Pro" models in a long time, at it comes during an economic situation where consumers are concerned about rising prices for everything else in life.
I would be more surprised if the "Pro" series maintained the same sales breakdown as last year.
The same macro-economic considerations should be applied when discussing the 16e sales. Are people buying it because they really like it for what it is? Or are they buying it because they're worried about price increases in the future and just trying to lock down the cheapest iPhone they can to provide financial breathing room for other expenses?
None of that it so say that any of the iPhone 16 series is a failure - I have a 16 Pro and like it! - just that there are many macroeconomic factors that could be influencing purchasing decisions in ways that previous years were not, and we shouldn't only look at the different features of each phone when analyzing these sales figures.
That might be seen as a loss, since theoretically those buyers might have splurged for the more expensive iPhone 16 Pro.
But with the introduction of iPhone 16e, Apple had to take a calculated risk. It needed to upgrade the base model enough that it’s differentiated from the new budget option.
I’m especially keen to see what happens to the Pro line later this year, after the iPhone 17 Air presumably wins users over.
What are your takeaways from Apple’s Q1 iPhone 16 Pro and other sales? Let us know in the comments.
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