Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo suggests that demand for the new iPhone 17 lineup is strong, with initial orders beating out those for last year’s iPhone 16.
He points to a clear indication that the iPhone 17 Pro Max is the star performer, although does acknowledge that demand for the iPhone Air may become clearer over time …
To conduct his analysis, Kuo looked at two factors. First, what he believes he knows about production volumes for each model via supply chain sources. Second, how quickly shipping times slipped once the lineup went on sale.
Demand for at least three of the models is strong, he concludes.
In terms of total production volume for the third quarter for the Pro Max, Pro, and standard models, the iPhone 17 is approximately 25% higher YoY compared to the iPhone 16, but the shipping time has only increased by about one week, indicating stronger overall pre-order demand for […] three iPhone 17 models. Conclusion: The first weekend pre-order demand for the iPhone 17 series is stronger than last year’s iPhone 16.
iPhone 17 Pro Max
He says there is a very strong clue that the iPhone 17 Pro Max is selling particularly well.
The strongest demand is still for the Pro Max. The iPhone 17 Pro Max’s production volume in 3Q25 is approximately 60% higher than that of the 16 Pro Max in the same period last year, yet the shipping times remain similar.
iPhone Air
Kuo notes that you can still preorder an iPhone Air today and receive it on day one. This may indicate that Apple has overestimated demand for its shiny new ultra-sleek model. I was able to confirm his findings by checking out a few specs, all of which were available for delivery on September 19.
However, he said the novelty of the new model means that we can’t necessarily judge popularity by initial demand.
Since Apple has not previously offered a product positioned like the Air, it would be more objective to observe demand trends after the initial sales period.
9to5Mac’s Take
Top comment by Joshua Romine
The Air still being available day 1 isn't too surprising, given the fact that it's an untested platform. It's also priced in a somewhat awkward place being only $100 cheaper than a pro, but more expensive than a 17 which has more than enough features for most people. People are holding onto their phones for much longer now - I'm currently on a 5 year cycle. I opted for a 17 over the Air for a few reasons (I don't need Pro level features), but I primarily wanted a design platform that's been tested and refined over the years. With the Air: How long will the battery last day-to-day? What will the battery life be in 5 years? How well will the thin design hold up over years of daily use?
If I was on a yearly upgrade cycle and had money to burn, I would have absolutely gone for the Air. I love that Apple created it and I do think it's a snapshot of the future for their iPhone lineup. Maybe in another 5 years when the platform has matured and been tested, the Air will be the phone I purchase.
I could see Apple going a few different directions with the Air in the future. They could do what they did with the Macbook lineup, where the iPhone Air becomes the entry level phone, have the Pro, and then have a folding iPhone. Or they could keep their entry level iPhone, still have a Pro, and the Air might eventually be the folding phone. Regardless, I'm happy Apple is trying out a new design with the Air, even it's not the phone for me this year.
It’s no surprise to me that demand for the iPhone 17 Pro Max is strong. It represents an extremely appealing proposition for serious content creators and filmmakers, and is a solid upgrade for many from models two or three years older.
I’m likewise not sure we can conclude too much from the fact that the iPhone Air still has day one availability. Kuo suggests that Apple made three times as many models as it did the iPhone 16 Plus, which previously occupied this slot. It’s certainly possible the company has overestimated demand, but it may have got it about right and be just about keeping pace with orders.
Certainly, my own anecdotal experience is that a lot of people who might previously have bought a Pro model are instead choosing the iPhone Air. Our own Ryan Christoffel is one example of many.
Highlighted accessories
- Official Apple Store on Amazon
- Apple 40W Dynamic Power Adapter for iPhone 17
- Official Apple iPhone Air cases and bumpers
- iPhone Air MagSafe Battery
- Official iPhone 17 cases
- Official iPhone 17 Pro cases and Pro Max cases
Image: Apple
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