Apple’s iPhone 18 launch is increasingly looking like a big departure from the company’s typical pattern. Today an IDC report has corroborated that the smallest flagship iPhone lineup since 2019 could be coming. Here are the details.
Smaller iPhone 18 lineup next fall expected by IDC, others
Today IDC published its 2025 smartphone sales forecast, including a preview of what 2026 could bring.
It’s overall a great report for Apple, as it shows strong iPhone 17 sales creating overall YoY growth of 6.1%.
Next year, however, IDC is expecting a 4.2% decline for iPhones.
Why the “negative” forecast? Because of Apple’s expected plan for an overhauled iPhone 18 launch strategy.
While the near-term forecast for smartphones has strengthened, 2026 growth has been revised downward from 1.2% growth to 0.9% decline, due to a combination of component shortages and product cycle adjustments. Apple’s strategic shift of its next base iPhone model from fall 2026 to early 2027 is forecast to pull-down iOS shipments by 4.2% next year.
We’ve been hearing for over half a year now that Apple plans to shift the base iPhone 18 out of the flagship fall lineup. It will instead launch in early 2027 alongside the iPhone 18e.
However, until recently, it was expected that there would still be four new iPhones next fall: iPhone Air 2, iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and iPhone Fold.
But when reports emerged that the Air 2 development was taking longer than expected, I speculated that Apple might pull the iPhone 18 forward into the fall after all.
Yet we’ve seen no leaks along those lines, and now IDC’s report seems to further confirm no change is coming.
Which means that next fall’s iPhone 18 lineup could be the smallest since 2019.
The last time Apple launched only three flagship iPhones was 2019
In 2019, Apple launched three flagship iPhones: the iPhone 11, 11 Pro, and 11 Pro Max.
Ever since then, we’ve gotten four iPhones every fall. Typically that’s been two Pro models and two ‘standard’ options, including the base model and either a smaller ‘mini’ or larger ‘Plus.’
This year, iPhone Air replaced the Plus model—but four models remained.
Now, expectations are that only three flagship 2026 iPhones are coming:
- iPhone 18 Pro
- iPhone 18 Pro Max
- iPhone Fold/Ultra
Dropping the base model helps explain why IDC expects overall iPhone shipments to decline next year. It’s also why they’re projecting a return to growth in 2027, when the base iPhone 18 and iPhone Air 2 launch.
How will the market respond to only three, premium-priced new iPhones next fall? It’s hard to say. Perhaps more users will go Pro than usual, while others opt for the ultra-expensive foldable. IDC does expect overall revenue to increase in 2026 despite declining shipments.
In any case, after years of relative stagnation in its lineup, Apple seems not at all averse to taking risks with the iPhone these days.
Do you think Apple shrinking the flagship iPhone 18 lineup will prove successful? Why or why not? Let us know in the comments.
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